Meanwhile, tensions have been growing in the Caribbean Sea over the last couple of weeks as the United States has increased its military presence off the coast of Venezuela, a country with the world's largest proven oil reserves. Venezuelan President Maduro, who has a $15 million bounty on his head, believes this military build-up is a pretext for an invasion and regime change. He has stated that his troops would fight back and that any invasion would affect all of South America. 

While a full-scale invasion is unlikely, the US appears determined to change the status quo in the name of fighting what it calls "narco-terrorism." A recent US Navy action involved the destruction of a speedboat carrying what the US identified as "narco-terrorists" and drugs. If the tension in the seas around Venezuela escalates, it would impact the price of crude oil, as the country still contributes to global markets despite sanctions.

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At the same time, there is no sign of a decrease in Russian oil imports by India and China, despite the US imposing a 50% tariff on Indian goods. While India has not retaliated in kind, there is a clear frustration in the Trump administration, which seems unsure of its next move with the world's most populous country. With a combination of these complex factors, it is difficult for oil prices to break free from their current stable state.